Afterhalving: What Else Can Influence Bitcoin Price

Editorial
09.07.2016

Reward halving is about to happen in less than hour, and the community gets oversaturated with the opinions as to what will happen to bitcoin price and the cryptocurrency itself once it occurs.

Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown, bitcoinblockhalf.com

Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown, bitcoinblockhalf.com

Still, halving isn’t the only thing capable of seriously impacting bitcoin price. ForkLog brought together all anticipated events that will definitely have their influence on bitcoin price and the industry’s further development.

U.S. Presidential Elections

One of the latest suggestions about bitcoin price came from Juniper Research, who assumed that cryptocurrency price may experience an upsurge in case Donald Trump wins U.S. presidential elections this autumn.

Thus, in a newly published report the authors said:

“If Donald Trump becomes president of the U.S., there is the very real prospect of turmoil on world markets — the Economist Intelligence Unit ranks his presidency within the Top 10 global risks.”

Trump is indeed a somewhat scandalous figure, yet he is a very popular politician. This January someone has launched a Twitter bot mixing Trump’s quotes with quotes from Reddit’s /r/bitcoin. The resulting messages are hilarious to some extent.

However, speaking about The DAO, the bot said:

Notably, Trump’s main competitor, Hillary Clinton, may contribute to the industry’s development. Last month she stated that in case of her victory she will support using and developing blockchain technology in public services.

Market failures are a commonplace for the periods when the new administration comes into office. George W. Bush’s inauguration coincided with dotcom collapse, while Obama’s inauguration in 2008 coincided with the international financial crisis. This election won’t be an exception, as it seems: oil, considering the expanding use of alternate power sources, looks a perfect candidate for yet another bubble to burst.

Oil price falling may easily impact bitcoin price. The direction of the impact may be questionable, but reasons for a possible to-the-moon may lie somewhere around.

Block Size Debate

The prolonged debate on block size increase has recently popped up to the surface again after the rumors on Terminator or the Chinese ultimatum. As a reminder, a Chinese bitcoin-related publication has published a discussion held by Chinese miners in regard of switching to Bitcoin Classic. While the rumors are still neither denied, nor confirmed, the market’s reaction caused the community to seriously weigh possible development of affairs.

Allegedly, unless Bitcoin Core’s team increases bitcoin block size to 2 MB by the end of this July and fully integrates SegWit, China will side with Bitcoin Classic.

The Chinese ultimatum launched ripples across the community, which cannot forget the role Chinese miners play in the industry. On the other hand, it’s gradually becoming evident that the block size debate has finally become a purely political affair within the industry.

Rise of ICO’s and New Blockchain Platforms

The year 2016 kicked off with sparkling ICO’s of Lisk and The DAO. Those two crowdsales turned out to be extremely successful, and the teams managed to raise dozens of millions of dollars.

Notably, almost immediately upon completion of Lisk’s ICO three projects positioning as the platform’s clones popped up. Those projects also ran ICO’s, which, however, weren’t as successful.

The attack on The DAO resulting in theft of three million ETH tokens became a challenge for the entire industry. The community started fracturing. Certainly, not every new project will face such tragic doom or shameless cloning. Bit still, up to five new cryptocurrencies with a short life span of 3 to 6 months appear at exchanges with dubious reputation.

Most likely, there’ll be an avalanche of major crowdsales by mid-2017. Tons of new projects will require bitcoins for development, research, and liquidity. This dynamics may result in the industry’s stagnation and mass disappointment. Finally, most of those disappointed will convert their investment back in bitcoin or alternate cryptocurrencies that seem stable enough at the time.

The same is true about blockchain developers, which the market desperately lacks at the moment. First, there’ll be much more of them, they’ll be more qualified, and their products will have higher quality. The intensive emergence of new blockchain systems and new ICO’s are generally an ambiguous factor that may influence both the cryptocurrency and the industry as a whole, both adversely and positively.

 

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